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Twelve months of email silence. 87,105 active email subscribers (live as of 2026-05-06) — only 1,292 have opened an email in the last 180 days, leaving ~81,700 in the long-dormant tail. 6,349 SMS-marketable across the same universe. One offer, two voice directions (established Brand Voice and Naima — friend-of-Winnie-and-Teyana register). Wave 1 calibrates on the 1,292 engaged slice; Waves 3a/b/c warm progressively into the dormant cohort over ~3 weeks, closing out the entire mailable universe by Wave 3c; Wave 4 reminds Wave 1+2 non-converters only.
notes/2026-05-06-locked-campaign-plan.md. Live universe + SMS counts pulled directly from Klaviyo on 2026-05-06.
Cay Skin hasn't sent an email since April 25, 2025. In that year, the list grew by nearly 50%. We have to assume the older cohort is partly cold — but the brand voice still works, the product still has cult demand, and the Two-Pack offer cuts through the apology trap.
Same offer to the entire 87,105-profile mailable universe. Audience targeting is by engagement tier (Wave 1 engaged-180d, Wave 2 engaged 90-365d, Waves 3a/b/c dormant) — the cohort framing below is the tenure dimension we layer on in post-send analysis. Every recipient is tagged with purchase history, prior engagement, and signup source so we can read conversion by behavior, not just by tenure. The voice direction (Brand Voice or Naima) is your call up front. No apologies, no welcome-only framing, no "we miss you."
Joined post-silence. None have received a Cay Skin email yet. Conversion behavior is genuinely unknown — they came in via paid social, influencer, and retail-partnership channels during a year of substantial brand-awareness growth that the email program was completely absent from.
Signed up during the 12-month silence. Same story as A1 — they opted in but Cay Skin never emailed them. The single largest unknown in the list. Their conversion read is the most strategically valuable data point Wave 1 produces.
Dormant by definition — joined more than a year ago, last engagement is pre-silence. Some are active; many are not. This is the only cohort where the historical 0.03% recipient CVR is a defensible floor expectation. Click-through is the diagnostic.
Two Isle Invisible Sunsticks for $30 (~25% off the pair, or BOGO 50% off the second — same total at $19.95 unit). Phrasing tested across a 2-arm Wave 1 split (statistical power justified — see offer-phrasing-options.md).
A complete creative set in two voice arms — same offer, same audience, same schedule. Brand Voice arm continues Cay Skin's established editorial-promotional register. Naima arm is the new direction — friend-of-Winnie-and-Teyana, AAVE-natural, sass with substance. Anish IRL-validated as closer to Winnie's actual register. The deck presents both arms in full so the call is "which voice do we ship?" — not "is this on-brand or off?" Both are defensible Cay Skin; only one is buttoned-up. Voice rules: naima-persona.md.
Dollar-led hero: $30 as the unmistakable visual anchor. Tests whether the audience responds to value framing or usage framing — Cay Skin's history has only 4% dollar-led subjects, so this is structurally novel for the list.
Calm follow-up. "STILL HERE" eyebrow. No urgency stack — historical "FINAL HOURS" sends underperformed by 5-10x. Acknowledges the inbox reality ("in case the first email got buried") without apologizing for being missed. Refreshed visual (yacht-hand product shot) replaces the original hands+sticks hero so the reminder doesn't reuse the same image as Wave 1. Spec chips and ingredient story added in the body. Day-of-week shift Fri→Mon avoids inbox pattern fatigue.
A parallel campaign in the Naima voice — confident peer to Winnie + Teyana, AAVE-natural, sass with substance. Anish-validated as closer to Winnie's IRL register than the buttoned-up brand-voice arm. Same offer math, same product facts, same verified reviews, same schedule, same single LP — voice carries the difference at the email/SMS layer; UTM tracking preserves voice-arm CVR attribution. Decision pending: run parallel to brand-voice (50/50 split), or ship as Wave 4 follow-on for non-converters. Strategic brief: creative_brief_naima.md. Voice rules: naima-persona.md.
$30 visual anchor. "Periodt" close on the headline. "We good" product headline close. "The math ain't mathing unless you reapply" reason. AAVE structures dropped naturally throughout.
Calm reminder voice. No urgency stack. "Inbox got loud last week. The Two-Stick Drop ain't moved. We did." Monday send avoids Friday→Friday inbox pattern fatigue.
SMS revenue density is 2.6× email per recipient in Cay Skin's trailing 24 months ($0.037 ROR vs $0.014). Two SMS chase the email cadence — short (under 120 chars), no MMS image, sent at 6am ET (the historical-best window with 11-send sample at $0.0472 ROR). Three data-driven calls counter common DTC wisdom: SMS-only beats MMS by 85%, short beats medium by 4.5×, "On the list" framing mirrors the email's offer-block language without leaning on untested "VIP" vocabulary.
Locked Primary (light insider touch). "On the list" mirrors the email's offer-block language. Code-driven mechanic per Cay Skin's historical pattern (GLOW20, BLACKFRIDAY, etc.). Per locked plan: single body per voice, no within-voice A/B.
Locked Primary. Restates the full offer — the lesson from the historical B2G1 Reminder failure (7.4% CTR but 0.02% CVR because the body never restated the actual mechanic). Calm, no urgency stack.
Same recipient-band economics, same send schedule, same offer. Voice register shifts to Naima — friend-of-Winnie-and-Teyana, AAVE-natural, sass with substance. Skips the code mechanic in favor of link-as-trust (tradeoff: lower trained-pattern signal, higher voice differentiation).
Locked Primary. "Teyana picked Isle Sunsticks" — explicit endorsement attribution + full product name (earlier draft used "She picked the Stick" which was too oblique for skim and missed the product name). "We cop two" = sneaker-coded peer pluralization. Single 💞 = ruleset minimum.
Locked Primary. "Inbox got loud" = peer acknowledgment without apology. Restates the offer ("Two Isle Sunsticks, $30, free ship") — the lesson from the historical B2G1 reminder failure. "Thanks boo" close = warm Naima peer-tag (replacing the earlier "drop ain't moved" which read in skim like nobody was buying).
Full SMS spec: sms/sms_messages.md (both arms) · Historical SMS analysis: analytics/2026-04-28-sms-analysis.md
A single Brand-voice landing page receives traffic from both voice arms. Voice differentiation lives in the email + SMS layer; the LP is shared. UTM tracking preserves arm-level CVR attribution (`utm_campaign=insider_twopack` for Brand-voice traffic, `utm_campaign=naima_twostickdrop` for Naima traffic). Shopify deployment spec: shopify-lp-deployment.md.
One landing page for the whole campaign. Buttoned-up Brand-voice creative. Hero is the 16:9 cheek-application image (golden-hour beach, copy-overlay zone on the right). "Insider's Two-Pack" naming. Face-positioning section ("On the cheek. Over makeup. In the bag.") between trust strip and product intro. Brand-story ingredient strip (vegan, silicone-free, fragrance-free, reef safe, dermatologist tested, no white cast). Joucelyn + Laura verified reviews, Teyana endorsement card, FAQ links return policy to cayskin.com. Voice-arm CVR attribution preserved via UTM (insider_twopack vs naima_twostickdrop); the LP itself is shared.
Naima LP draft archived 2026-05-05 · Single-LP routing locked in by Nick · See archived Naima LP for reference
Wave 1 sends Friday morning at 5am ET — the historical-best send window in Cay Skin's trailing 12 months. Three first-touch waves expand the audience progressively for deliverability protection, then one calm reminder catches non-clickers a week later. No Wave 5 final-call: historical compressed-cadence reminders (BFCM 2024) lost value across each subsequent send. Pause if open rate drops below 30% or complaint rate exceeds 0.1%. Non-negotiable.
Email send to the engaged-180d slice (1,289 active subscribers who've opened a Cay Skin email in the last 6 months), with Brand × Naima 50/50 voice split. SMS 1 follows at 6am ET to the SMS Master ∩ Wave 1 audience. Single variant per arm (V2 value-led only — Cay Skin's historical strongest framing). Wave 1 is the calibration read; voice-arm CVR sets the ceiling expectation against which Waves 2-3 are sized.
Only fires if Wave 1 metrics are clean (30%+ open, <0.1% complaint, <1% unsub). ~4,100 subscribers — anyone who opened email in the last 365d minus Wave 1's audience. Same V2-only treatment, Brand × Naima 50/50. Voice-arm weighting adjusts from Wave 1's read if the gap exceeds MDE; otherwise stays 50/50. Email-only — SMS 2 pairs with Wave 4.
First send to the 12-month-dormant cohort (post-list-cleaning). 10K random sample of cleaned dormant — read deliverability signals (open rate, bounce rate, complaint rate) before going wider. W4 reminder framing ("STILL HERE") fits the reactivation context. Pre-fires only if dedicated sending domain is propagated — see plan doc.
Second dormant warming wave. Conditional on clean Wave 3a deliverability signals. Same W4 reminder framing, expanded to ~25K of the cleaned dormant cohort. The combined Wave 3a + 3b read informs whether Wave 3c proceeds at full scale or slows further. Email-only.
Final dormant send. Closes out the entire list — every active email subscriber has now received a Two-Pack email. Locked voice-arm weighting from Wave 3a + 3b read. Email-only. After this fires, only Wave 4 reminder remains, targeted exclusively at Wave 1+2 non-converters (NOT the dormant cohort).
One calm reminder pair for the engaged-cohort non-converters from Waves 1+2 only. Email: "Still here — the Two-Pack is on the list" (Brand) or "Inbox got loud. The Two-Pack ain't moved." (Naima). SMS 2 follows at 6am ET to SMS Master ∩ Wave 1+2 non-converters with the locked Naima body "Inbox got loud. Two Isle Sunsticks, $30, free ship — thanks boo 💞". Suppression: converters, unsubscribers, anyone in active checkout-abandon flow. Wave 3 dormant cohort is explicitly excluded — they got the W3 send and the reminder strategy doesn't carry over.
The honest framing: Cay Skin's historical campaign-level conversion is 0.03% recipient CVR across 81 sends and 2.69M deliveries — but 46% of the current list (the silent-year + freshest-joined cohorts) has never received a Cay Skin email and has no historical comparable. The forecast can't be calibrated from history. Wave 1 produces the first real data point for the current list; Waves 2-4 are sized from that signal.
Cay Skin's SMS generates $0.037 revenue per recipient historically — vs email's $0.014. The SMS Master Segment is 6,349 marketable opt-ins live (segment VbmTYw, pulled from Klaviyo on 2026-05-06). Historical broadcast sends reach ~5,000 actively deliverable per send.
Two-Pack SMS contribution: SMS 1 fires to SMS Master ∩ Wave 1 (intersection of 6,349 SMS opt-ins with the 1,292 engaged-180d cohort — a small overlap, expected ~150-400 recipients). SMS 2 fires to SMS Master ∩ Wave 1+2 non-converters (expected ~400-1,200 recipients). Net SMS revenue across the campaign at the historical $0.037 ROR: ~$20-60 expected. Modest absolute scale — but per-recipient density remains 2.6× email.
Full historical send analysis in analytics/2026-04-28-historical-send-analysis.md · SMS analysis in analytics/2026-04-28-sms-analysis.md →
Strategy. Hours. Subject lines. Brief. Everything ScaleCreative used to build this campaign — and everything Cay Skin needs to ship it.
Full strategic brief for the Brand Voice arm — V2-only/V3/W4 emails, audience, send plan, forecast posture. Updated 2026-04-30 with $19.95 unit price + 2-arm offer-phrasing test. Wave 4 reminder schedule has shifted since this doc was authored — see locked-campaign-plan.md for the canonical Tuesday May 26 send date.
Open MD →Strategic brief for the Naima arm — same offer/audience/schedule, friend-of-Winnie-and-Teyana voice register. Maps every Naima asset and the parallel-vs-follow-on decision still open with Anish.
Open MD →16 subjects total — A/B variants for V2-only/V3/W4 across both Brand Voice and Naima arms. Each scored against historical patterns with KEEP / SHARPEN / SWAP rationale.
Open MD →Two parallel SMS arms (Brand Voice + Naima), each with SMS 1 Drop + SMS 2 Reminder, each A/B-tested. Short (under 120 chars), no MMS, sent at 6am ET. Calibrated against 30 historical Cay Skin SMS sends.
Open MD →The friend-of-Winnie-and-Teyana voice persona — vocabulary, cadence rules, do/dont, receipts. Anish IRL-validated as closer to Winnie's actual register.
Open MD →The 2-arm offer-phrasing A/B test design ($30 strikethrough $39.90 vs BOGO 50%). Statistical-power justification for collapsing from 3 arms to 2. Math at $19.95 unit price.
Open MD →Original campaign strategy doc — cohort segmentation, phasing, KPI scorecard, risk mitigation. Pre-historical-analysis baseline. Use the brief above for the current strategy.
View PDF →Phased work plan with hours per task, role allocation, and total investment. Maps every email, SMS, LP block, and analytics task.
View PDF →Live Excel of the hours estimate. Edit role allocations, hourly rates, or phase assignments — totals recalculate automatically.
Open XLSX →81 Cay Skin email campaigns, 2.69M deliveries, 12-month silence. Recipient-weighted CVR, promo-subset benchmarks, top-performer patterns, day-of-week and send-hour cadence, monthly revenue. The data behind every strategic decision.
Open MD →Why the 0.03% historical CVR isn't an execution problem — it's a structural read on what the email program has been optimizing for. Audience targeting bias, CTOR distribution, content-vs-offer split, what to fix.
Open MD →30 trailing-24mo Cay Skin SMS sends. Why SMS-only beats MMS by 85%. Why short beats medium by 4.5×. Why 6am ET is the historical sweet spot. The data behind the SMS spec.
Open MD →Verified Isle Invisible Sunstick specs from cayskin.com PDP — chemical filter (Avobenzone, Homosalate, Octisalate, Octocrylene), SPF 35, 15g, $19.95 single (Amazon $19.99). 4.9★ on cayskin.com, 4.8★ on Amazon. Verified review corpus. Two-Pack math at the corrected unit price.
Open MD →Source of truth. Wave structure, audience reality (87,105 universe / 1,292 W1 / ~4,100 W2 / dormant 81,709), Path B cadence (May 8 / 10 / 13 / 17 / 21 / 26), known pitfalls. Supersedes the original upload spec. Locked decisions: V2-only Wave 1, Brand × Naima 50/50, list cleaning before Wave 3, Wave 4 W1+2 non-converters only.
Open MD →Every fabricated claim caught and resolved across the bundle — Brooklyn footer, Tanisha review, 8-12 weeks per stick, $24 price, trust strip SLAs. Plus the 2026-05-08 reversal: WR-80 minutes was incorrectly removed (it's printed on the package), now restored. What's verified, what's still pending Anish sign-off.
Open MD →What comes next: Memorial Day sitewide promo, Wave 1 cohort breakdown, purchaser-segment cadence shift, Shopify funnel pull. Updated post-pivot to reflect what's now in flight.
Open MD →The detailed ChatGPT image-gen prompt that produced the ORIGINAL Brand Voice LP hero composition (hands-left, copy-overlay-right). Superseded 2026-05-08 by the cheek-application 16:9 hero. Kept for reference / future image regeneration patterns.
Open MD →The behavioral tags, segments, and flows ScaleCreative creates in your Klaviyo account. All durable assets — they outlive the Two-Pack and become the foundation for cohort-level reporting on every campaign that follows.
Anchored to Placed Order metric. Lapsed = bought >180d ago. Recent = bought ≤180d ago.
Engagement here is post-silence flows only — campaigns haven't run since 2025-04-23.
Where available from existing Klaviyo profile data. Critical for the silent-year cohort, which arrived through varied channels.
Finer-grained than the deck's A1/A2/B trichotomy. Lets the post-send analysis spot threshold effects (e.g. silent-year subs may behave differently from week 26 onward).
VnbCa6)The Wave 1 calibration audience — built and verified in Klaviyo on 2026-05-06. 1,292 profiles at last pull. The full engaged-180d cohort across all tenure groups.
Universe baseline reference: XkygcV InsiderTwoPack_AllEmailMarketable_Universe (87,105 profiles). Wave 2/3/4 segments build off Wave 1 + universe via profile-segment-membership is_member: false negation — the only pattern that doesn't trip Klaviyo's count=0 universe-return bug.
Behaviorally-triggered reminder rather than a manual campaign send. Automatically sends to any Wave-1 or Wave-2 recipient who hasn't clicked or converted within the 5-day window.
Built once. Reusable for any future campaign's reminder logic — just swap the trigger campaign IDs and the email template.
Two SMS draft campaigns, each with A/B-tested body variants. SMS doesn't use Klaviyo's email-template system — bodies are inline within the campaign message. No MMS image (data-driven decision: SMS-only beats MMS by 85% ROR).
Naima arm runs parallel: SMS 1 Naima body "Teyana picked Isle Sunsticks. We cop two. $30, free ship. Get in 💞" and SMS 2 Naima body "Inbox got loud. Two Isle Sunsticks, $30, free ship — thanks boo 💞" — single body per voice per send (locked plan: no within-voice A/B). Full spec in sms_messages.md.
No existing segments are deleted or modified. No existing flows are paused or edited. No account-level settings (sender authentication, SMS sender ID, deliverability config, profile properties beyond the four tags above) are changed. The existing 28 Cay Skin flows continue running unchanged through the campaign window.
Two weeks. Eight emails across two voice arms. Two landing pages. Four SMS variants. One offer that works for everyone — in your established Brand Voice or in the Naima register Anish IRL-validated. Pick the room. The deliverability plan protects the brand either way.